You might recall that in late October, I issued my winter weather forecast for West Michigan. You can read my blog post to see the specifics, but to save you that effort, I’ll recap the highlights here, then check up on the predictions to see how they’re working out.
First, I predicted that November would be relatively snow-less, that less than an inch would fall during the month. Whether that prediction was accurate depends on where you live. In Kalamazoo, for example, a quick shot of lake effect snow on November 10th dropped an inch and a half on Kalamazoo, and between two and three inches on portions of St. Joseph and Branch counties. However, the majority of West Michigan — cities like Holland, Grand Rapids, and South Haven, for example — didn’t see more than a few flurries.
On November 30th, a storm moving across the Ohio Valley came close enough to West Michigan to bring a band of heavy snow that stretched from Lansing to Kalamazoo and Cassopolis. Locales along and east of that line picked up between two and six inches of snow. But once again, the snowfall was isolated to one portion of West Michigan. Anyone living west of the Lansing to Cassopolis line didn’t even see an inch; in fact, Holland and Muskegon didn’t even see a flake!
Another of my predictions which is associated with the above: we would see our first snowfall of 1″ or more in the first week or two of December. I should have been more specific, to say our first “area-wide” one inch snowfall. If you discount the above-mentioned snowfall which was over isolated areas in West Michigan, that prediction would be considered correct. The first area-wide snowfall of one inch or more happened on December 9th, when all locales in our area received between 1 and 3 inches of accumulation.
No matter what criteria you choose to use for the one-inch snowfall prediction, the forecast for below-average snowfall in the months of November and December did indeed verify. I projected that we would have 12″ of snow in December, about 50% less than average, to give us a November-December total of 12″. The November-December snow total in Kalamazoo was 8.5″ and in Grand Rapids, 5.2″; less than I predicted, but again, in line with the call for a relatively quiet start to winter.
As a result of the “snow-less” start to the winter, I predicted that Thanksgiving holiday travel would be unaffected by the weather, that weather conditions would be friendly for travelers. But even I didn’t realize just how good the weather would be! Temps were in the upper 40s to upper 50s, with abundant sunshine. Again, in line with the less-than-average snowfall projection for December, I (reluctantly!) predicted that we would have a green, not white Christmas. That prediction proved correct.
The next part of my winter forecast included a call for our first “major” snowfall, defined as having six inches or more of the white stuff, in the first week or two of January. I think the storm which roared across West Michigan last Sunday night and Monday — bringing up to a foot of snow to the snow belt, and between 3 and 8 inches of accumulation for areas outside of the snow belt — qualifies as the season’s first major snowfall.
It remains to be seen how the rest of the forecast will turn out: January and February will be quite snowy, with 30″ falling in January and 25″ in February. The snowfall will continue into March, with between 10 and 15″ coming down. So far, the forecast has been pretty accurate, so I think it is a good idea to have the snow blower ready to go!
As I explained in the original forecast blog post, the predictions are primarily based on the occurrence of a moderately-strong La Nina in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. A survey of the winter weather in West Michigan during the last three such occurrences — dating back to the late 1980s — is the foundation for my forecast. In each of those years, winter’s wrath started late in the season. In all three prior instances, there will little snowfall in November, below-average snowfall in December, much-above snowfall in January and February, and slightly above average snowfall in March, for a total snowfall about 10 percent above average. My prediction for West Michigan’s snowfall for this winter (Kalamazoo/Grand Rapids): 80″. That is in line with seasonal totals in the last three moderately strong La Nina winters in West Michigan.
Check out my blog post from last October to see more details regarding the winter forecast. I’ll check up on the forecast again at the end of February. At that time, if the forecast continues to verify, we’ll be talking about digging out from a snowy January and February.
